Association between Renal Function at Admission and COVID-19 in-Hospital Mortality in Southern Italy: Findings from the Prospective Multicenter Italian COVOCA Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence has shown a close association between COVID-19 infection and renal complications in both individuals with previously normal renal function and those with chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: The aim of this study is to evaluate the in-hospital mortality of SARS-CoV-2 patients according to their clinical history of CKD or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). This is a prospective multicenter observational cohort study which involved adult patients (≥18 years old) who tested positive with SARS-CoV-2 infection and completed their hospitalization in the period between November 2020 and June 2021. RESULTS: 1246 patients were included in the study, with a mean age of 64 years (SD 14.6) and a median duration of hospitalization of 15 days (IQR 9-22 days). Cox's multivariable regression model revealed that mortality risk was strongly associated with the stage of renal impairment and the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a progressive and statistically significant difference (p < 0.0001) in mortality according to the stage of CKD. CONCLUSION: This study further validates the association between CKD stage at admission and mortality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. The risk stratification based on eGFR allows clinicians to identify the subjects with the highest risk of intra-hospital mortality despite the duration of hospitalization.

Modeling for the Stringency of Lock-Down Policies: Effects of Macroeconomic and Healthcare Variables in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: The spread of COVID-19 has been characterized by unprecedented global lock-downs. Although, the extent of containment policies cannot be explained only through epidemic data. Previous studies already focused on the relationship between the economy and healthcare, focusing on the impact of diseases in countries with a precarious economic situation. However, the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 drew most countries of the world into a precarious economic situation mostly caused by the global and local lock-downs policies. Methods: A discriminant analysis performed via partial least squares procedure was applied to evaluate the impact of economic and healthcare variables on the containment measures adopted by 39 countries. To collect the input variables (macroeconomic, healthcare, and medical services), we relied on official databases of international organizations, such as The World Bank and WHO. Results: The stringency lock-down policies could not only be influenced by the epidemical data, but also by previous features of the selected countries, such as economic and healthcare conditions. Conclusions: Indeed, economic and healthcare variables also contributed to shaping the implemented lock-down policies.

Early predictors of clinical deterioration in a cohort of outpatients with COVID-19 in southern Italy: A multicenter observational study.

Data regarding early predictors of clinical deterioration in patients with infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still scarce. The aim of the study is to identify early symptoms or signs that may be associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted a multicentre prospective cohort study on a cohort of patients with COVID-19 in home isolation from March 2020 to April 2021. We assessed longitudinal clinical data (fever, dyspnea, need for hospitalization) through video calls at three specific time points: the beginning of symptoms or the day of the first positivity of the nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2-RNA (t0 ), and 3 (t3 ) and 7 (t7 ) days after the onset of symptoms. We included 329 patients with COVID-19: 182 (55.3%) males, mean age 53.4 ± 17.4 years, median Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) of 1 (0-3). Of the 329 patients enrolled, 171 (51.98%) had a mild, 81 (24.6%) a moderate, and 77 (23.4%) a severe illness; 151 (45.9%) were hospitalized. Compared to patients with mild COVID-19, moderate and severe patients were older (p < 0.001) and had more comorbidities, especially hypertension (p < 0.001) and cardiovascular diseases (p = 0.01). At t3 and t7 , we found a significant higher rate of persisting fever (≥37°C) among patients with moderate (91.4% and 58.0% at t3 and t7 , respectively; p < 0.001) and severe outcome (75.3% and 63.6%, respectively; p < 0.001) compared to mild COVID-19 outcome (27.5% and 11.7%, respectively; p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with a more severe outcome were persisting fever at t3 and t7 , increasing age, and CCI above 2 points. Persisting fever at t3 and t7 seems to be related to a more severe COVID-19. This data may be useful to assess hospitalization criteria and optimize the use of resources in the outpatient setting.

Modeling for the Stringency of Lock-Down Policies: Effects of Macroeconomic and Healthcare Variables in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background The spread of COVID-19 has been characterized by unprecedented global lock-downs. Although, the extent of containment policies cannot be explained only through epidemic data. Previous studies already focused on the relationship between the economy and healthcare, focusing on the impact of diseases in countries with a precarious economic situation. However, the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 drew most countries of the world into a precarious economic situation mostly caused by the global and local lock-downs policies. Methods A discriminant analysis performed via partial least squares procedure was applied to evaluate the impact of economic and healthcare variables on the containment measures adopted by 39 countries. To collect the input variables (macroeconomic, healthcare, and medical services), we relied on official databases of international organizations, such as The World Bank and WHO. Results The stringency lock-down policies could not only be influenced by the epidemical data, but also by previous features of the selected countries, such as economic and healthcare conditions. Conclusions Indeed, economic and healthcare variables also contributed to shaping the implemented lock-down policies.

No additional benefit of prescribing a very low-protein diet in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease under regular nephrology care: a pragmatic, randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Whether a very low-protein diet supplemented with ketoanalogues (sVLPD), compared with a standard low-protein diet (LPD), improves outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) under stable nephrology care is undefined. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness of sVLPD compared with LPD in patients regularly seen in tertiary nephrology care. METHODS: Participants were patients with CKD stages 4-5, followed for at least 6 mo, randomly allocated to receive sVLPD or LPD [0.35 or 0.60 g/kg ideal body weight (IBW)/d, respectively], stratified by center and CKD stage. The primary outcome was time to renal death, defined as the first event between end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were the single components of the primary outcome, cardiovascular outcome, and nutritional status. RESULTS: We analyzed 223 patients (sVLPD, n = 107; LPD, n = 116). Mean age was 64 y, 61% were male, and 35% had diabetes. Median protein intake (PI), which was 0.8 g/kg IBW/d at baseline in both groups, was 0.83 and 0.60 g/kg IBW/d in LPD and sVLPD, respectively, during the trial with a large decrease only in sVLPD (P = 0.011). During a median of 74.2 mo, we recorded 180 renal deaths (141 dialysis and 39 deaths before dialysis). Risk of renal death did not differ in sVLPD compared with LPD (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.57; P = 0.28). No difference was observed for ESRD (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.56; P = 0.51), mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.62, 1.45; P = 0.82), or time to fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular events (P = 0.2, log-rank test). After 36 mo, still active patients were 45 in sVLPD and 56 in LPD. No change of nutritional status emerged during the study in any arm. CONCLUSIONS: This long-term pragmatic trial found that in patients with CKD under stable nephrology care, adherence to protein restriction is low. Prescribing sVLPD compared with standard LPD is safe but does not provide additional advantage to the kidney or patient survival.

Tocilizumab for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The single-arm TOCIVID-19 prospective trial.

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab blocks pro-inflammatory activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6), involved in pathogenesis of pneumonia the most frequent cause of death in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: A multicenter, single-arm, hypothesis-driven trial was planned, according to a phase 2 design, to study the effect of tocilizumab on lethality rates at 14 and 30 days (co-primary endpoints, a priori expected rates being 20 and 35%, respectively). A further prospective cohort of patients, consecutively enrolled after the first cohort was accomplished, was used as a secondary validation dataset. The two cohorts were evaluated jointly in an exploratory multivariable logistic regression model to assess prognostic variables on survival. RESULTS: In the primary intention-to-treat (ITT) phase 2 population, 180/301 (59.8%) subjects received tocilizumab, and 67 deaths were observed overall. Lethality rates were equal to 18.4% (97.5% CI: 13.6-24.0, P = 0.52) and 22.4% (97.5% CI: 17.2-28.3, P < 0.001) at 14 and 30 days, respectively. Lethality rates were lower in the validation dataset, that included 920 patients. No signal of specific drug toxicity was reported. In the exploratory multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age and lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio negatively affected survival, while the concurrent use of steroids was associated with greater survival. A statistically significant interaction was found between tocilizumab and respiratory support, suggesting that tocilizumab might be more effective in patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Tocilizumab reduced lethality rate at 30 days compared with null hypothesis, without significant toxicity. Possibly, this effect could be limited to patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline. Registration EudraCT (2020-001110-38); clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04317092).

Lack of effect on in-hospital mortality of drugs used during COVID-19 pandemic: Findings of the retrospective multicenter COVOCA study.

INTRODUCTION: During COVID-19 pandemic, the use of several drugs has represented the worldwide clinical practice. However, though the current increase of knowledge about the disease, there is still no effective treatment for the usage of drugs. Thus, we retrospectively assessed use and effects of therapeutic regimens in hospitalized patients on in-hospital mortality. METHODS: COVOCA is a retrospective observational cohort study on 18 COVID centres throughout Campania Region Hospitals. We included adult patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, discharged/dead between March/June 2020. RESULTS: 618 patients were included, with an overall in-hospital cumulative mortality incidence of 23.1%. Most prescribed early treatments were antivirals (72%), antibiotics (65%) and hydroxychloroquine/anticoagulants (≈50%). Tocilizumab, indeed, was largely prescribed late during hospitalization. Multivariable models, with a cut-off at day 2 for early COVID-19 therapy administration, did not disclose any significant association of a single drug administration on the clinical outcome. DISCUSSION: COVOCA represents the first multicenter database in Campania region. None drug class used during the pandemic significantly modified the outcome, regardless of therapy beginning, both overall and net of those already in non-invasive ventilation (NIV)/ orotracheal intubation (OTI) at hospitalization. Our cumulative incidence of mortality seems lower than other described during the same period, particularly in Northern Italy.

Comparing the COVID-19 pandemic in space and over time in Europe, using numbers of deaths, crude rates and adjusted mortality trend ratios.

Comparison of COVID-19 trends in space and over time is essential to monitor the pandemic and to indirectly evaluate non-pharmacological policies aimed at reducing the burden of disease. Given the specific age- and sex- distribution of COVID-19 mortality, the underlying sex- and age-distribution of populations need to be accounted for. The aim of this paper is to present a method for monitoring trends of COVID-19 using adjusted mortality trend ratios (AMTRs). Age- and sex-mortality distribution of a reference European population (N = 14,086) was used to calculate age- and sex-specific mortality rates. These were applied to each country to calculate the expected deaths. Adjusted Mortality Trend Ratios (AMTRs) with 95% confidence intervals (C.I.) were calculated for selected European countries on a daily basis from 17th March 2020 to 29th April 2021 by dividing observed cumulative mortality, by expected mortality, times the crude mortality of the reference population. These estimated the sex- and age-adjusted mortality for COVID-19 per million population in each country. United Kingdom experienced the highest number of COVID-19 related death in Europe. Crude mortality rates were highest Hungary, Czech Republic, and Luxembourg. Accounting for the age-and sex-distribution of the underlying populations with AMTRs for each European country, four different patterns were identified: countries which experienced a two-wave pandemic, countries with almost undetectable first wave, but with either a fast or a slow increase of mortality during the second wave; countries with consistently low rates throughout the period. AMTRs were highest in Eastern European countries (Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland). Our methods allow a fair comparison of mortality in space and over time. These might be of use to indirectly estimating the efficacy of non-pharmacological health policies. The authors urge the World Health Organisation, given the absence of age and sex-specific mortality data for direct standardisation, to adopt this method to estimate the comparative mortality from COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.

Diagnostic issues faced by a rare disease healthcare network during Covid-19 outbreak: data from the Campania Rare Disease Registry.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were: to investigate the capacity of the rare disease healthcare network in Campania to diagnose patients with rare diseases during the outbreak of Covid-19; and to shed light on problematic diagnoses during this period. METHODS: To describe the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of patients with rare diseases, a retrospective analysis of the Campania Region Rare Disease Registry was performed. A tailored questionnaire was sent to rare disease experts to investigate major issues during the emergency period. RESULTS: Prevalence of new diagnoses of rare disease in March and April 2020 was significantly lower than in 2019 (117 versus 317, P < 0.001 and 37 versus 349, P < 0.001, respectively) and 2018 (117 versus 389, P < 0.001 and 37 versus 282, P < 0.001, respectively). Eighty-two among 98 rare disease experts completed the questionnaire. Diagnostic success (95%), access to diagnosis (80%) and follow-up (72%), lack of Personal Protective Equipment (60%), lack of Covid-19 guidelines (50%) and the need for home therapy (78%) were the most important issues raised during Covid-19 outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak on the diagnosis of rare disease in a single Italian region and investigates potential issues of diagnosis and management during this period.

[Covid-19 and clinical-epidemiological research in Italy: proposal of a research agenda on priority topics by the Italian association of epidemiology]. / Covid-19 e ricerca clinico-epidemiologica in Italia: proposta di un'agenda di ricerca su temi prioritari da parte dell'Associazione italiana di epidemiologia.

BACKGROUND: the Covid-19 pandemic has provoked a huge of clinical and epidemiological research initiatives, especially in the most involved countries. However, this very large effort was characterized by several methodological weaknesses, both in the field of discovering effective treatments (with too many small and uncontrolled trials) and in the field of identifying preventable risks and prognostic factors (with too few large, representative and well-designed cohorts or case-control studies). OBJECTIVES: in response to the fragmented and uncoordinated research production on Covid-19, the   italian Association of Epidemiology (AIE) stimulated the formation of a working group (WG) with the aims of identifying the most important gaps in knowledge and to propose a structured research agenda of clinical and epidemiological studies considered at high priority on Covid-19, including recommendations on the preferable methodology. METHODS: the WG was composed by 25 subjects, mainly epidemiologists, statisticians, and other experts in specific fields, who have voluntarily agreed to the proposal. The agreement on a list of main research questions and on the structure of the specific documents to be produced were defined through few meetings and cycles of document exchanges. RESULTS: twelve main research questions on Covid-19 were identified, covering aetiology, prognosis, interventions, follow-up and impact on general and specific populations (children, pregnant women). For each of them, a two-page form was developed, structured in: background, main topics, methods (with recommendations on preferred study design and warnings for bias prevention) and an essential bibliography. CONCLUSIONS: this research agenda represents an initial contribution to direct clinical and epidemiological research efforts on high priority topics with a focus on methodological aspects. Further development and refinements of this agenda by Public Health Authorities are encouraged.

Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of a new point-of-care rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 virus detection.

BACKGROUND: The easy access to a quick diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a key point to improve the management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and to contain its spread. Up to now, laboratory real-time PCR is the standard of care, but requires a fully equipped laboratory and significant infrastructure. Consequently, new diagnostic tools are required. METHODS: In the present work, the diagnostic accuracy of the point-of-care rapid test "bKIT Virus Finder COVID-19" (Hyris Ltd) is evaluated by a retrospective and a prospective analysis on SARS CoV-2 samples previously assessed with an FDA "authorized for the emergency use-EUA" reference method. Descriptive statistics were used for the present study. RESULTS: Results obtained with the Hyris Kit are the same as that of standard laboratory-based real time PCR methods for all the analyzed samples. In addition, the Hyris Kit provides the test results in less than 2 h, a significantly shorter time compared to the reference methods, without the need of a fully equipped laboratory. CONCLUSIONS: To conclude, the Hyris kit represents a promising tool to improve the health surveillance and to increase the capacity of SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Impact of chronic liver disease upon admission on COVID-19 in-hospital mortality: Findings from COVOCA study.

BACKGROUND: Italy has been the first Western country to be heavily affected by the spread of SARS-COV-2 infection and among the pioneers of the clinical management of pandemic. To improve the outcome, identification of patients at the highest risk seems mandatory. OBJECTIVES: Aim of this study is to identify comorbidities and clinical conditions upon admission associated with in-hospital mortality in several COVID Centers in Campania Region (Italy). METHODS: COVOCA is a multicentre retrospective observational cohort study, which involved 18 COVID Centers throughout Campania Region, Italy. Data were collected from patients who completed their hospitalization between March-June 2020. The endpoint was in-hospital mortality, assessed either from data at discharge or death certificate, whilst all exposure variables were collected at hospital admission. RESULTS: Among 618 COVID-19 hospitalized patients included in the study, 143 in-hospital mortality events were recorded, with a cumulative incidence of about 23%. At multivariable logistic analysis, male sex (OR 2.63, 95%CI 1.42-4.90; p = 0.001), Chronic Liver Disease (OR 5.88, 95%CI 2.39-14.46; p<0.001) and malignancies (OR 2.62, 95%CI 1.21-5.68; p = 0.015) disclosed an independent association with a poor prognosis, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and Respiratory Severity Scale allowed to identify at higher mortality risk. Sensitivity analysis further enhanced these findings. CONCLUSION: Mortality of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 appears strongly affected by both clinical conditions on admission and comorbidities. Originally, we observed a very poor outcome in subjects with a chronic liver disease, alongside with an increase of hepatic damage.

A phase 2, open label, multicenter, single arm study of tocilizumab on the efficacy and tolerability of tocilizumab in the treatment of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia (TOCIVID-19 trial): Statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab, an IL-6 receptor antagonist, was suggested as a possible treatment of severe or critical COVID-19 pneumonia in a small Chinese study. The TOCIVID-19 trial evaluates efficacy and tolerability of tocilizumab in the treatment of patients with severe or critical COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: TOCIVID-19 is an academic multicenter, single-arm, open-label, phase 2 study. All the patients are being offered a single shot of 8 mg/kg of Tocilizumab (up to a maximum of 800 mg), with an eventual second administration at the discretion of the Investigator. A companion prospective cohort, added to corroborate internal validity, includes either patients not eligible for phase 2 or subjects eligible for phase 2 but exceeding the planned sample size. 14- and 30-days lethality rates are the two co-primary endpoints in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Secondary objectives are to evaluate mortality and clinical improvement in the modified-ITT population of subjects who received the drug. Details of the methodological and statistical approaches are reported here reflecting the amendments impelled by the continuously increasing knowledge on COVID-19 progression and challenges in data collection. CONCLUSION: This paper provides details of planned statistical analyses for TOCIVID19 trial to reduce the risk of reporting bias and increase validity of the study findings.TOCIVID-19 trial is registered in the EudraCT database with number 2020-001110-38 and in clinicaltrials.gov with ID NCT04317092.

TOCIVID-19 - A multicenter study on the efficacy and tolerability of tocilizumab in the treatment of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the most frequent complication of COVID-19, due to an aberrant host immune response that is associated with an acute respiratory distress syndrome, and, in most critical patients, with a "cytokine storm". IL-6 might play a key role in the cytokine storm and might be a potential target to treat severe and critical COVID-19. Tocilizumab is a recombinant humanized monoclonal antibody, directed against IL-6 receptor. METHODS: This multicentre study project includes a single-arm phase 2 study and a further parallel cohort, enrolling hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and oxygen saturation at rest in ambient air ≤93% or requiring respiratory support. Patients receive tocilizumab 8 mg/kg (up to 800 mg) as one intravenous administration. A second administration (same dose) after 12 h is optional. Two-week and one-month lethality rates are the co-primary endpoints. Sample size planned for the phase 2 study is 330 patients. The parallel cohort will include patients who cannot enter the phase 2 study because being intubated from more than 24 h, or having already received tocilizumab, or the phase 2 study has reached sample size. Primary analysis will include patients enrolled in the phase 2 study. Results of the primary analysis will be validated in the prospective cohort of patients consecutively registered after phase 2 closure from March 20 to March 24, who were potentially eligible for the phase 2 study. CONCLUSION: This trial aims to verify the safety and efficacy of tocilizumab in the Italian population with COVID-19 pneumonia and respiratory impairment. EudraCT Number: 2020-001110-38; Clinicaltrials.gov ID NCT04317092.